Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
